Merrick Garland will be confirmed for the Supreme Court, Harry Reid, March 17, 2016: “I'm confident he is going to get approval.”. Some combinations of electoral votes are much more common than others. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or the Princeton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. That's what … Clinton got 88% of the black (12%) vote, 65% of the latino (11%) vote and 65% of the asian (4%) vote. In October, the editor-in-chief of GQ, Jim Nelson, penned an essay titled, “Let's Face It, Donald Trump Is About to Lose.” And the day before the election, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball prophesied 322 electoral votes for Clinton and 216 for Trump. Links: Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer. The event will be among many making 2016 “an extraordinary election year,” he told a packed audience at Wheeling Jesuit University’s Troy Theater Tuesday night. The final electoral college ratings map from "The Fix" political team at The Washington Post. The Upshot’s presidential forecast, updated with each new poll. But after the initial buzz, Meerkat faded away. This analysis also ranks states from most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic.
© 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. We estimate voter preferences in all states and use them to calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state.
The United Kingdom won’t vote to leave the European Union, Matthew Shaddick to International Business Times, June 17, 2016: “‘Leave’ needs to be well ahead at this stage in order to have any chance of winning, unless they can convince voters that staying in the EU is riskier than leaving. Let’s go to the actual predictions for the 2016 election. But that didn’t stop Bill Kristol from tweeting just weeks before the event, “Prediction: 2016 GOP MVP will be @Reince, who steps up, ensures open convention, saves party from Trump and produces ticket that wins in Nov.”, Women will form a firewall for Clinton against Trump, Washington Post’s The Daily 202, November 3, 2016: “College-educated white women are Hillary Clinton’s firewall.”, Democrats usually perform better among female voters than Republicans do, and this year was no different. However, as per Betfair, the projected result vindicated the betting markets. The Huffington Post’s forecast gave Clinton 98 percent, PredictWise gave her 89 percent, and the New York Times’s The Upshot gave her 85 percent. We didn’t just mess up the finer points of this election; our failure to predict what 2016 had in store was a much larger failure to imagine that this kind of campaign that was even possible in American politics today. They were fairly evenly split for higher income levels. ABOUT US Benzinga does not provide investment advice. In the end, he was passed over for Indiana Gov. Polls compiled from the Huffington Post polling database, Morning Consult, YouGov and other assorted pollsters.
The 2016 US election saw a compound betting of close to $360 million, Press News Agency reports. In a year of so many shockers, maybe it’s unfair to hold an erroneous prediction or 10 against anyone. Polymarket has benefited from the US election, with its election-related markets receiving over $3.5 million in trading volume.
Biden's chances declined from 61 percent from Tuesday to 40 percent on Wednesday, 4th November. Hillary will get indictedPredicted by: Andrew NapolitanoOn “The Kelly File” in September 2015, Fox News legal analyst Andrew Napolitano said that the FBI would recommend to the Justice Department that Clinton would be indicted for what he alleged was perjury (she said in a sworn statement that she had turned over all relevant emails for the FBI’s investigation). Asked in February about when the primary campaign would end, Marco Rubio campaign manager Terry Sullivan told the AP that he “would be surprised if it’s not May or the convention.” A month later, Ohio Gov. Final 2016 projection from Louis Jacobson, who has handicapped the electoral college in 2008, 2012 and 2016, most recently for Governing magazine, where he writes a twice-monthly column on state politics. This sign-up form is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates vote estimates for each state and the District of Columbia, as well as congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska, which assign electoral votes by district. The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Follow @TheFix on Twitter for their latest commentary and analysis of the 2016 elections. 6. But Politico Magazine has annually compiled a list of the worst political predictions, including those made within our own ranks, since 2013, and we’re not stopping now. “Money in politics is a major story in the 2016 campaign,” insisted a 2015 Vox headline.
Trump got 67% of whites without a college degree. There will be a viable national third-party candidatePredicted by: Bill Kristol (among many others)In early February, social media and the press were “salivating” at the prospect of a Michael Bloomberg run when his adviser Doug Schoen told the Wall Street Journal the former New York mayor would be “a serious contender.” Bloomberg ended up not running. Trump, according to … 3. The 2016 Democratic National Convention will be contestedPredicted by: Bernie Sanders (among others)In a May 2016 speech before the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., just two months before the Democratic National Convention, Bernie Sanders argued that Hillary Clinton would “need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in Philadelphia.
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